Flyvbjerg, bent, truth and lies about megaprojects september 1, 2007. The oxford handbook of megaproject management edited by. This serves to illustrate what may be called the iron law of megaprojects. Flyvbjergs team has concluded that, most likely, lies are at the heart of the worldwide problem of cost underestimation on transportation projects. Megaproject management, by bent flyvbjerg home facebook. Bent flyvbjerg demonstrates a sound method for improving cost forecasts here in the 2006 project management journal, its a fairly long and academic article, so ill provide a brief summary. In mid2008, the economist called current spending on infrastructure the biggest investment boom in history the economist, 7 june 2008, p. New scientist megaprojects and risk provides a fascinating look at the pervasiveness of misinformation in the planning of major construction projects and the systematic bias of such. Often projects are led by planners and managers without deep domain experience who keep changing throughout the long project cycles that apply to megaprojects, leaving leadership weak.
Flyvbjerg, bent, priemus, hugo and van wee, bert, eds. This page is for people who want to be on the cutting edge of megaproject planning and management, curated by professor bent flyvbjerg, oxford. Flyvbjerg presents strong evidence showing how megaprojects usually unfold. A summary of five misunderstandings about casestudy research by bent flyvbjerg posted on march 16, 2014 by alexanderepdawson flyvbergs article from 2006 is an investigation into five misunderstandings often perceived when looking at case studies as a method of research. Pdf five misunderstandings about casestudy research.
Delusion and deception in large infrastructure projects. Spending was the largest it had ever been as a share of world gdp. Professor flyvbjergs research focuses on the better management of megaprojects, including the olympic games, and cities. Iii flyvbjerg 2014a assembled the key historical texts in the field. Democracy in practice morality and society series new edition by flyvbjerg, bent isbn. He was previously professor of planning at aalborg university, denmark and chair of infrastructure policy and planning at delft university of technology, the netherlands. Buhl d espite the enormous sums of money being spent on transportation infrastructure, surprisingly little systematic knowledge exists about the costs, bene. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. Flyvbjerg, bent 2008 public planning of megaprojects. What you should know about megaprojects pmi academic summary. How inaccurate are demand forecasts in public works. Megaprojects are large, complex projects that typically cost billions of dollars and impact millions of people, like building a highspeed rail line, a megadam, a national health or pensions it system, a new widebody aircraft, or staging the olympics. Pdf as megaprojects have become ubiquitous, their real benefits and costs have come. A summary of five misunderstandings about casestudy.
Five misunderstandings about casestudy research article pdf available in qualitative inquiry 122. He is the author of the highly successful making social science matter. And bent flyvbjergs damning analysis concentrates on a series of financial nightmares that should bring even the most casual reader out in a sweat. To provide a critique of bent flyybjergs work that has high relevance to the pm literature. Paper listed as the most read and most cited, 2006. Getting decisions right by taking the outside view, papers 2. Bent flyvbjerg, mette skamris holm, and soren buhl, underestimating. According to chief economist and director of transportation policy at infrastructure management group, inc. The result is a rationality that is often as imaginary as the time in little town, yet with very real social and environmental consequences. Flyvbjerg argues that such projects consistently end up costing more with smaller benefits than projected and almost always end up with costs that exceed the benefits. Bt professor and chair of major programme management, said business school. Power and project management an appreciation stewart clegg, centre for management and organization studies, university of technology, sydney.
An overview bent flyvbjerg, said business school, oxford university, oxford, united kingdom mega, giga, tera. Wheeler, this book makes an important contribution to understanding the infrastructure development process. The oxford handbook of megaproject management has been designed to provide the most important contemporary readings. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. Bent flyvbjerg argues that the strength of social science is in its rich, reflexive analysis of values and power, essential to the social and economic development of any society. He is the most cited scholar in the world in megaproject planning and management. Bent flyvbjerg, nils bruzelius, werner rothengatter. Regarding risks of cost escalation, the prospectus read the. Schar school of policy and government, george mason university, fairfax, va, usa.
Listed as most read article on the journals homepage. Truth and lies about megaprojects by bent flyvbjerg ssrn. Bent flyvbjerg professor and founding chair of major programme management said business school oxford university draft 9. Bent flyvbjerg ten characteristics of megaprojects. Quality control and due diligence in project management. Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at said business school and a professorial fellow of st annes college.
Bent flyvbjerg shows that rationality is contextdependent and that the crucial context is determined by decisionmakers power. Powerfullyargued,withclearmethodological guidelines and practical examples, makingsocialsciencematter. The danish research team, which found that routine underestimation of costs spans all continents, project types, and decades, concluded that the old, reliable excuses unforeseen technical. Two models for explaining and preventing executive disaster bent flyvbjerg massimo garbuio dan lovallo t he economist recently reported that infrastructure spending is the. The case of transportation bent flyvbjerg, mette k. The oxford handbook of megaproject management provides stateoftheart scholarship in the emerging field of megaproject management. Overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs. Mega project definition a mega project is an extremely largescale investment project.
An anatomy of ambition 2003 by bent flyvbjerg is a dry but interesting look at how expensive projects are chronically over budget, under utilised and delivered late. The seattle project neatly corroborates flyvbjergs findings. Right by taking the outside view, international journal of project management, vol. The oxford handbook of megaproject management hardcover. Bent flyvbjerg, 2014, what you should know about megaprojects and why. Sunstein, 2016, the principle of the malevolent hiding hand.
Bent flyvbjerg, the leading and most cited authority in the field, has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherrypick from several hundred articles and books the writings. Bent flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, qualitative inquiry, vol. Our research documents that projects across industries and geographies struggle to meet the most basic targets. Nine out of ten transport projects, six out of ten energy projects, seven out of ten dams, five out of ten technology projects, and ten. Managing mega projects content mega projects definition mega projects challenges driving and executing mega projects to success.
An anatomy of ambition is a 2003 book by bent flyvbjerg, nils bruzelius, and werner rothengatter, published by cambridge university press. Bent also writes about the philosophy and methodology of social science. Taken together, the two books are intended to map out the best of what is worth reading in the megaproject management literature, past and present. Studies social sciences, management, and project management. Megaprojects are inherently risky due to long planning horizons and complex interfaces.
What you should know about megaprojects pmi academic. Richly informed, powerfully argued, and clearly written, this book provides essential reading for. The oxford handbook of megaproject management, by flyvbjerg, bent oxford university press, oxford, 2017, pp. Participatoryactionresearch katherinemella finalpaper november18,20 5 stronglyurgedtoengagewith. Isbn 9781845427375 link to full text available through this repo. Essential readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor. It is now due to be completed at the end of 2017, two years behind schedule, and berthas delays have only added to the steadily. Bent flyvbjerg argues that the strength of social sciences lies in its rich, reflexive analysis of values and power, essential to the social and economic development of any society. Like infrastructure is the great space shrinker, and power, wealth and status increasingly belong to those who know how to shrink space, or know how to benefit from space being shrunk. The approach flyvbjerg suggests is called reference class forecasting. Power blurs the dividing line between rationality and rationalization.
Bent flyvbjerg of oxford university speaks with econtalk host russ roberts about the political economy of megaprojectsmassive investments of a billion dollars or more in infrastructure or technology. Moving beyond the purely analytic or technical, flyvbjerg compares the theoretical study of human activity with realworld situations and demonstrates how the social sciences can become relevant againinthemodernworld. This paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely costly field of study, by first answering the question of how large megaprojects are by measuring them in the units of mega, giga, and tera, and concluding with how we are presently entering a new tera era of trillion. Bent flyvbjerg, university of oxford, said business school, faculty member. He works for better management of megaprojects and cities.
Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at oxford. Comparison of capital costs per routekilometre in urban rail, papers 3. Richly informed, powerfully argued, and clearly written, this book opens up a new future for the social sciences. Flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, 9. The oxford handbook of megaproject management, by bent.
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